Solid: the condition (orange = firm 1, the replaced firm; the other line = firm 0, the incumbent; in R5 and R5f both firms are replaced). Faint dotted:
the no-swap control from the same market and seed. Grey band: the scored rounds 31-50. Click a point near the swap
to read the agents' reasoning in that round.
Reasoning
Firm 0 (incumbent)
Firm 1
Reasoning is kept for chart rounds -2 to 15, trimmed to its last 900 characters
(where the price is chosen). Full logs are in data/results.zip.
Change in the mean price index over post-swap rounds 31-50 relative to the no-swap control from the same
market (0 = competitive price, 1 = monopoly price). Diamond: mean over markets; bar: 95% cluster-bootstrap interval
(only with 3 or more markets); dots: single markets. RN, RNf and RX are exploratory; the "all markets" sample adds
the Track F markets run after the analysis.
20-round rolling mean of the price index for every run in the group. Dotted line: the 0.5 collusion
threshold used to pick the swap point.